A deep depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm Arnab on 26 October 2026. At 05:30 IST that morning it lay about 590 km north-west of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands and about 650 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts it to move west-north-west until 27 October, then turn north-west. It is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October as a very severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of 115–125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h. The same day, the Cabinet Secretary chaired the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) to review preparations in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Puducherry.
Arnab is also the first named cyclone of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean. Every earlier system this year stayed at depression or deep-depression strength. That fact is the best way into the whole subject, because it shows exactly where the line between a "depression" and a "cyclone" is drawn.
The ladder: how IMD ranks a storm
IMD classifies a low-pressure system by its maximum sustained surface wind. IMD averages that wind over three minutes, whereas some other agencies use a one-minute average.
| Category | Wind (knots) | Wind (km/h) | Named? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Depression | 17–27 | 31–49 | No |
| Deep Depression | 28–33 | 50–61 | No |
| Cyclonic Storm | 34–47 | 62–88 | Yes — the name is given here |
| Severe Cyclonic Storm | 48–63 | 89–117 | Yes |
| Very Severe Cyclonic Storm | 64–89 | 118–166 | Yes |
| Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm | 90–119 | 167–221 | Yes |
| Super Cyclonic Storm | 120 and above | 222 and above | Yes |
The fourth row matters most. A system becomes a cyclonic storm at 34 knots, and that is when it receives a name. In late September 2026, a deep depression crossed the coast south-west of Kalingapatnam, between north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha. Arnab was the next name in line and was widely expected to go to that system, but its winds never reached cyclone strength, so the name stayed unused. A month later, the October system crossed the threshold and took it.
One subtlety examiners like: Arnab's forecast landfall winds of 115–125 km/h straddle the line between a severe cyclonic storm (up to 117 km/h) and a very severe one (from 118 km/h). IMD forecasts the category, and its final classification depends on the observed wind. Read the category in the bulletin, not just the km/h figure.
Who names the storms, and how
Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are named by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), New Delhi, which is run by IMD. It works under the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, a regional body of the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
- 2004: naming began in September 2004, with 64 names from eight countries: Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
- 2018: the panel grew to 13 members with the addition of Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen.
- 2020: after Amphan used up the last name on the old list, IMD released a new list of 169 names, 13 from each member.
The list is used column by column. Within each column, names run in the alphabetical order of the contributing countries, from Bangladesh to Yemen. That is why the sequence of the past year reads like a roll-call:
| Name | Contributed by | Used |
|---|---|---|
| Montha | Thailand | October 2025 |
| Senyar | UAE | November 2025 |
| Ditwah | Yemen | November 2025 |
| Arnab | Bangladesh | October 2026 |
| Murasu | India | next |
Ditwah closed the second column, and Arnab, from Bangladesh, opens the third. It means "sea" or "ocean" in Bengali and is pronounced "Ornab". The next name is Murasu, contributed by India. India's thirteen names on the 2020 list include Gati (used in 2020) and Tej (2023).
Two rules complete the picture. A name, once used, is never repeated. Names must also be neutral — free of political, religious, cultural or gender sensitivities — and short and easy to pronounce across the region. Naming exists for communication: a single, memorable label avoids confusion in warnings, especially when two systems are active at once.
Why October, and why the Bay of Bengal
The North Indian Ocean has two cyclone seasons:
- a pre-monsoon season, from April to June, peaking in May;
- a post-monsoon season, from October to December, peaking in November.
The post-monsoon season is the more dangerous of the two, and the Bay of Bengal produces most of its storms. Several conditions combine there:
- Warm water. Cyclones need sea-surface temperatures of about 26.5 °C or more over a deep layer. The Bay stays warm after the monsoon.
- Low wind shear. Once the monsoon withdraws, the change in wind with height drops. This lets a storm's vertical structure organise instead of being torn apart.
- Coriolis force. Cyclones do not form within about 5° of the Equator, because the deflecting force is too weak there. In the Northern Hemisphere they rotate anticlockwise.
- Moist inflow. The Bay is fed by moist air and, at times, by the remnants of disturbances that drift in from the South China Sea.
The Bay's shape adds to the danger at landfall. Its funnel-like northern end and shallow continental shelf off Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh pile up storm surge, the sea water a cyclone pushes onshore. Storm surge, not wind, has historically caused most cyclone deaths on this coast.
The coast in the forecast
Arnab's forecast track runs into a coast with a recent record. Hudhud struck Visakhapatnam in October 2014. Michaung crossed near Bapatla in December 2023. And Montha crossed near Kakinada as a severe cyclonic storm on the evening of 28 October 2025 — exactly a year before Arnab's forecast landfall date.
Three place names from the bulletin are worth fixing:
- Yanam is a district of the Union Territory of Puducherry, enclaved within Andhra Pradesh near the mouth of the Godavari. Puducherry's other districts are Puducherry and Karaikal (both on the Tamil Nadu coast) and Mahe (on the Kerala coast). A UT spread over three states is a favourite exam question.
- Sri Vijaya Puram is the new name of Port Blair, capital of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, renamed in 2024.
- Bapatla, Machilipatnam and Kakinada lie along the Krishna–Godavari delta coast, one of the most cyclone-exposed stretches of the east coast.
The forecast also expects the system to carry heavy rain inland to Telangana, south Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Cyclones that weaken over land become rain-bearing depressions, which is why flood alerts often reach states far from the sea.
The response machinery
The 26 October review shows how India organises for a cyclone:
- IMD, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, issues the forecasts and warnings.
- The National Crisis Management Committee, chaired by the Cabinet Secretary, coordinates the Union ministries and the affected States.
- The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), constituted in 2006 under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, pre-positions teams. State Disaster Response Forces (SDRFs) are kept on standby alongside it.
- The Army, Navy, Air Force and Indian Coast Guard keep ships, aircraft and rescue teams ready. The Coast Guard shepherds vessels to harbour.
- Fishermen have been told not to venture into the south-west and central Bay of Bengal, or off the Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Yanam coasts, from 26 to 29 October.
The stated objective is zero loss of life. The institutional shift behind that goal, from relief after a disaster to preparation before it, is explained in our explainer on India's zero-casualty approach. The forecasting side builds on IMD's network, covered in our piece on IMD's seventh regional meteorological centre.
🔑 Revision block
- Arnab: became a cyclonic storm on 26 October 2026; first named cyclone of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean.
- Forecast: to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October as a very severe cyclonic storm, 115–125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h.
- Name: contributed by Bangladesh; means sea/ocean in Bengali; pronounced "Ornab". Next name: Murasu (India).
- Naming: by RSMC New Delhi (IMD) under the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones. Began 2004 (8 countries, 64 names); 13 members since 2018; 2020 list = 169 names. Used column-wise; never repeated.
- IMD scale: Depression 17–27 kt → Deep Depression 28–33 → Cyclonic Storm 34–47 (named) → Severe 48–63 → Very Severe 64–89 → Extremely Severe 90–119 → Super ≥120 kt. IMD uses a 3-minute average wind.
- Seasons: pre-monsoon (Apr–Jun, peak May) and post-monsoon (Oct–Dec, peak Nov); the Bay of Bengal produces most storms.
- Conditions: sea surface about 26.5 °C+, low wind shear, no formation within about 5° of the Equator, anticlockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Places: Yanam = Puducherry UT enclave in Andhra Pradesh; Sri Vijaya Puram = former Port Blair.
- Response: NCMC (chaired by the Cabinet Secretary), NDRF (2006, DM Act 2005), SDRFs, the armed forces and the Coast Guard.
🎯 Practice MCQs
Q1. The name "Arnab", given to the Bay of Bengal cyclone of October 2026, was contributed by: (a) Bangladesh (b) India (c) Myanmar (d) Sri Lanka
→ (a) It means "sea" or "ocean" in Bengali.
Q2. A low-pressure system over the North Indian Ocean is first given a name when IMD classifies it as a: (a) depression (b) deep depression (c) cyclonic storm (d) severe cyclonic storm
→ (c) Naming begins at 34 knots (about 62 km/h), the cyclonic-storm threshold.
Q3. Which body names tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea? (a) Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Hawaii (b) Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New Delhi (c) National Disaster Management Authority (d) Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services
→ (b) RSMC New Delhi is run by IMD and acts for the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones.
Q4. The 2020 list of cyclone names for the North Indian Ocean contains: (a) 64 names from 8 countries (b) 104 names from 8 countries (c) 130 names from 13 countries (d) 169 names from 13 countries
→ (d) Each of the 13 member countries contributed 13 names; 64 names from 8 countries was the 2004 list.
Q5. Yanam, mentioned in the cyclone forecast, is part of which State or Union Territory? (a) Andhra Pradesh (b) Puducherry (c) Odisha (d) Tamil Nadu
→ (b) It is a district of Puducherry UT, enclaved within Andhra Pradesh.
Q6. On the IMD scale, a "very severe cyclonic storm" has maximum sustained winds of: (a) 34–47 knots (b) 48–63 knots (c) 64–89 knots (d) 90–119 knots
→ (c) That is about 118–166 km/h; 48–63 knots is a severe cyclonic storm.
Q7. The main tropical cyclone season over the Bay of Bengal peaks in: (a) February (b) May (c) August (d) November
→ (d) The post-monsoon season (October to December) is the principal one; May is the pre-monsoon peak.
Q8. Consider the following statements: 1. A cyclone name, once used, is not repeated in the North Indian Ocean list. 2. Names are used in order of the storm's intensity. Which is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2
→ (a) Names are used sequentially, column by column, regardless of how strong the storm becomes.
Q9. Tropical cyclones rarely form within about 5° of the Equator because: (a) sea-surface temperatures there are too low (b) the Coriolis force there is too weak (c) there is no evaporation at the Equator (d) the trade winds are absent
→ (b) Without enough deflecting force, the inflowing air cannot be set spinning.
Q10. Which of the following was the next name after Arnab on the North Indian Ocean list, and who contributed it? (a) Ditwah — Yemen (b) Senyar — UAE (c) Murasu — India (d) Montha — Thailand
→ (c) Montha, Senyar and Ditwah were the three names used before Arnab, in 2025.
📋 How this gets asked (PYQ pattern)
Cyclones appear in the NDA GAT in three forms.
The first is the naming question: which country contributed a particular name, which body assigns names, or how many countries share the list. These are pure current-affairs facts, which is why the name of every new cyclone should go into your notebook with its country.
The second is the conceptual geography question: why cyclones do not form at the Equator, which way they rotate in each hemisphere, what sea temperature they need, and why the Bay of Bengal sees more of them than the Arabian Sea. These come straight from the physical geography syllabus, and a fresh cyclone is the examiner's cue to ask them.
The third is the map question: which coast a cyclone struck, or where a place in the bulletin lies — Yanam, Machilipatnam, Gopalpur, Sri Vijaya Puram. Locate every place named in a cyclone forecast on a map of the east coast.
At the SSB, a cyclone is a ready topic for a lecturette or a group discussion on disaster management. A strong answer moves beyond relief to the chain of early warning, evacuation and the role of the armed forces in aid to civil authority.
Preparing for NDA? Every new cyclone is a chance to revise physical geography: learn its name, its contributor, its category and its landfall on the map. Build the base with our NDA study material, follow the daily NDA current affairs, and train with serving-standard faculty in the upcoming Cavalier courses in Delhi.
✍️ Written by Col D.N. Sharma — Science & general-studies faculty at The Cavalier. Reviewed by the Cavalier Faculty Desk.