On 2 June 2026, Union Agriculture Minister Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan chaired a high-level review of the Southwest Monsoon and the possible impact of El Niño, directing special monitoring of districts likely to receive low rainfall. "There is no need to panic… timely preparation is the need of the hour," he said. For NDA and CDS aspirants, this is the perfect trigger to lock down one of the most heavily tested geography topics — El Niño, the monsoon and their effect on agriculture.
What happened
- The Agriculture Minister reviewed the Southwest Monsoon outlook and the possible impact of El Niño.
- He directed special monitoring and swift action in states/districts likely to get low rainfall, with a focus on seeds, moisture conservation, water management and alternative (contingency) crop planning.
- He noted that reservoir water levels were better than normal, supporting Kharif preparations, and stressed that contingency plans must be "visible on the ground."
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America. It is the warm phase of a larger coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon called ENSO — the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
- El Niño (warm phase): the eastern Pacific warms and the trade winds weaken. For India, El Niño years are often (though not always) associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and a higher risk of drought.
- La Niña (cool phase): the opposite — the eastern Pacific cools — and is generally favourable for a good Indian monsoon.
- Southern Oscillation: the accompanying see-saw of atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western Pacific (measured between Tahiti and Darwin). Together, the ocean changes (El Niño/La Niña) and the air-pressure changes (Southern Oscillation) make up ENSO.
ENSO is the single most important driver of year-to-year variation in the global climate, and it has a strong influence on the Indian monsoon.
The Southwest Monsoon — the static backbone
The Southwest (summer) Monsoon is the lifeline of India:
- It delivers about 75% of India's annual rainfall, roughly between June and September.
- It typically sets in over Kerala around 1 June and advances across the country, withdrawing by September–October.
- It is caused by the seasonal reversal of winds — as the landmass heats up, a low-pressure area forms over the subcontinent, drawing in moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean.
- It is the foundation of Kharif agriculture (rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, oilseeds), and hence of rural incomes, reservoir levels, hydropower and the wider economy.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a key driver:
- A positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean relative to the east) tends to strengthen the monsoon and can partly offset the drying effect of an El Niño.
- A negative IOD can suppress rainfall.
So the monsoon outcome in any year depends on the interplay of ENSO and the IOD — which is why El Niño does not automatically mean drought.
Why the government is concerned
A strong El Niño can suppress monsoon rainfall, with knock-on effects on Kharif sowing, reservoir levels, drinking water, hydropower and rural incomes, and can push up food inflation. Hence the government's emphasis on early preparation — drought-tolerant seeds, moisture and water conservation, and contingency crop plans so that farmers can switch to less water-intensive crops if rainfall is poor.
Why it matters
- Food and economy: the monsoon drives agriculture, which supports a large share of livelihoods and affects inflation.
- Disaster preparedness: early warning and contingency planning reduce drought damage.
- High-yield geography: ENSO, the IOD and the monsoon are perennial exam favourites.
The mechanism of the monsoon
The Indian monsoon is essentially a giant sea-breeze on a seasonal scale, driven by the differential heating of land and sea:
- In summer, the landmass of the subcontinent heats up faster than the surrounding ocean, creating an intense low-pressure area over northwest India.
- Moisture-laden winds blow from the high-pressure zone over the cooler Indian Ocean towards this low-pressure area, bringing rain — the Southwest Monsoon.
- The apparent shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward, the Tibetan Plateau's heating, the jet streams (the easterly tropical jet and the withdrawal of the subtropical westerly jet), and the Somali Jet all influence the monsoon's strength and timing.
- In winter, the pattern reverses (the Northeast or "retreating" monsoon), bringing rain mainly to the southeast coast (Tamil Nadu).
El Niño and global impacts
El Niño does not affect India alone — it shifts weather worldwide. Typically, El Niño brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia, Australia and India, and wetter conditions to parts of the Americas, along with warmer global average temperatures. La Niña generally does the reverse. Because these events influence agriculture, water, fisheries, energy demand and even disease patterns across continents, agencies like the IMD, the WMO and global climate centres monitor Pacific Ocean temperatures closely. For India specifically, the combination of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole is watched each year to anticipate the monsoon — which is why the government's early review and contingency planning, as seen here, are so important.
Key facts for your exam
- El Niño: warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific; the warm phase of ENSO.
- La Niña: the cool phase — generally good for the Indian monsoon.
- Southern Oscillation: the air-pressure see-saw (Tahiti–Darwin) that accompanies ENSO.
- Southwest Monsoon: ~75% of India's annual rainfall, June–September (Kharif season); onset over Kerala ~1 June.
- IOD: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can boost the monsoon and offset El Niño.
Quick revision recap
- El Niño: warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific (warm phase of ENSO) → risk of weaker Indian monsoon.
- La Niña: cool phase → generally good monsoon.
- ENSO = ocean component (El Niño/La Niña) + atmospheric Southern Oscillation.
- IOD: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole strengthens the monsoon and can offset El Niño.
- Southwest Monsoon: ~75% of annual rainfall, June–Sept; onset over Kerala ~1 June; basis of Kharif crops.
- Mechanism: land–sea differential heating; ITCZ shift; Tibetan Plateau; jet streams; Somali Jet.
Previous-year & expected exam questions
Q1. El Niño refers to the — Answer: Abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (the warm phase of ENSO).
Q2. Which phase, El Niño or La Niña, is generally favourable for the Indian monsoon? Answer: La Niña (the cool phase) is generally associated with a good monsoon.
Q3. ENSO is a combination of which two components? Answer: The oceanic component (El Niño / La Niña) and the atmospheric component (the Southern Oscillation in air pressure).
Q4. The Southwest Monsoon normally sets in over which Indian state first? Answer: Kerala (around 1 June).
Q5. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), important for the monsoon, is a belt of — Answer: Low pressure near the equator where the trade winds converge; its northward shift in summer helps trigger the monsoon.
Q6. The retreating (Northeast) monsoon brings rainfall mainly to — Answer: The southeastern coast (Tamil Nadu) in October–December.
Q7. The Southern Oscillation is measured between which two stations? Answer: Tahiti and Darwin (the Southern Oscillation Index).
Climate, agriculture and resilience
Because so much of India's agriculture is rain-fed, the monsoon's behaviour shapes the entire economy — from food prices and rural demand to hydropower and even GDP growth in a weak-monsoon year. Climate change is adding new uncertainty, with more erratic rainfall, extended dry spells and intense downpours. Building resilience — through irrigation, drought-tolerant seeds, crop diversification, watershed development, crop insurance (PMFBY) and accurate forecasting (IMD) — is therefore a national priority. Understanding the science of El Niño, La Niña and the IOD helps anticipate these risks, which is exactly why the government's early review and contingency planning, as seen in this news, matter so much.
Q8. The crop-insurance scheme that protects farmers against weather-related losses is the — Answer: Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY).
Q9. The Indian Ocean Dipole is sometimes called the "Indian Niño" because it involves — Answer: A temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, influencing the monsoon.
FAQ
Q1. Does El Niño always cause a drought in India? No. El Niño raises the risk of weaker rainfall, but the outcome also depends on factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole — some El Niño years still see near-normal monsoons.
Q2. What is ENSO? El Niño–Southern Oscillation — the coupled ocean–atmosphere pattern in the Pacific that combines ocean-temperature changes (El Niño/La Niña) with the Southern Oscillation in air pressure.
Q3. Why does the monsoon matter so much to India? Because about three-quarters of India's annual rainfall comes from the Southwest Monsoon, making it critical for Kharif crops, reservoirs, hydropower and the rural economy.
Q4. How can the Indian Ocean Dipole offset El Niño? A positive IOD warms the western Indian Ocean, enhancing moisture flow to India and strengthening the monsoon, which can partly cancel out the drying tendency of an El Niño.